The U.S. economy might be second to China’s after 2030
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Photo Credit: hin255 / Shutterstock

New data shows U.S., Euro economies will slow as BRICs grow in the next 15 years

According to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, some of today’s strongest economies – the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany – will experience a significant slow down in the next 15 years as the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – continue to close the gap.

The U.S., the current world economic leader, will just narrowly hold the top spot with a projected GDP of $24.8 trillion in annual output by 2030. Meanwhile, China’s GDP is expected to more than double its size to reach $22.2 trillion in 15 years’ time.

Image Credit: Bloomberg

Image Credit: Bloomberg

Watch out for India

The steadily narrowing gap between the world’s two strongest economic powerhouses — the U.S. and China — is no huge surprise. What is more interesting is India’s rapid growth: Currently ranked 10th by the IMF World Economic Outlook, India is projected to overtake Brazil, the U.K., France, Germany and Japan to become the world’s third largest economy thanks to several factors, including declining inflation, lower oil prices, and fiscal policy reforms.

While the USDA is not the most commonly used data for global economic rankings, the trends it predicts are consistent with those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which projects its economic outlook every two years.

And though it’s hard to predict definitively what the world’s economic order will look like in another 15 years, IMF data since 2011 has consistently shown that BRICs are growing while the top European economies slow down. If the USDA’s 15-year projection is correct, 2030 may be the United States’ last year as the world’s largest economy.

Bottom line: Emerging markets are gaining ground. With such rapid growth, these economies will continue to attract attention from investors, incubators, and global companies seeking innovation and market share — and soon, everyone else.

H/t: Bloomberg

Featured Image Credit: hin255 / Shutterstock

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Rachel Solomon

About Rachel Solomon


Journalist, content creator, and marketing communications expert with experience in the private and non-profit sectors. My portfolio includes editorial writing and multi-channel marketing content. I engage audiences with the missions, issues, and services I represent by designing clear, creative messaging across web, video, and print. International work experience in New York, London, and Tel Aviv.

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  • Dinesh Dutta

    China may even cross US before 2030. This 21st century will see rise of Asia with China and India. Please note that India started reforming 20 years after China.
    World back into pre-Industrial revolution era when China and India were major economies until colonial powers destroyed them.

  • Chris

    Well, a long way for China to catch up with the US in terms of nominal GDP/capital. However, if you go to China, the standard living of Chinese people in China are similar to those American in the US. However, the big difference is that Chinese can not travel to the US to have the same standard living as the US people do in China.
    China started reform in 1979, partially, as it was on experimental basis. It took about more than one decade for China to confirm the economical reform which then took place across the whole country.
    Apparently, India was also monitoring the Chinese economical reform and started its own economical reform in 1991, which actually started the reform exactly the same as China, as China’s initial economical reform was limited to one or two locations.
    India was founded in 1947, and copied China’s economical reform in 1991. India indeed achieved some progress which India should have, even without the reform.
    After debating for decades which country is leading… how can India catch up with China etc…
    Now it is clear that it would take at least 65 years for India to match China’s economy even if everything is going in India’s way.

    • Dinesh Dutta

      I don’t see India to catch China in this century but India will certainly become World’s third largest economy in coming years.

      • Chris

        Well, if you look at the prediction on India’s economy over the past 30 years, you would find yourself all wrong. Then what are the reasons why it should be right this time.
        West and India always overestimated the India economical growth consistently.
        Regarding the present Indian GDP growth rate, even the Indian centre bank is suspicious of the adjusted data: How can an exporting decline (10%) and industrial increase 3.2% of India, come out a 7% GDP growth for year 2014? Unless Indian agriculture and service have increased up 12% respectively for year 2014.

        • Dinesh Dutta

          India will certainly become World’s third largest economy. You will see this in coming years. Robust GDP growth figures India of more than 7% were calculated by IMF, which is an independent organisation. Decline export not alone a reason, growth can be achieved by increased demand at home too.

          • Chris

            IMF calculation is based on Indian government economical input. India adjusted its growth rate, not IMF.
            What ever you talked about the domestic demand, the fact is the industrial output is 3.2% increase. How can an industrial output increase of 3.2% , with export declining of 10%, come out with an increase of 7%? Where does it come from?

          • Dinesh Dutta

            At least respect what the experts of USDA in this article have calculated and predicted of India. Go and check with economic experts, you will get your answer.

          • Chris

            Look at the track record of the prediction on the Indian economic growth data over the past 30 years. All wrong and heavily overestimated. Why is this time right?
            Also, this article is written by a journalist, not a international economist on India.

          • MartinArcher

            Quoting an organization of third world government bureaucrats (the IMF) led by a french lawyer who never studied economics is not reassuring.

      • MartinArcher

        Certainly India will grow because the country five year plan calls for it to grow just as the ability of pigs to move their legs faster and faster can be extrapolated to prove that pigs will be flying at the same time.

      • Bonds Mynameisbonds

        In ppp term yes India now 3rd largest GDP(ppp) in the world

    • mirror

      Beside economical factors there are many other factors. India was a socialist society right from the beginning and was mostly on the other side of the table while dealing with west (mostly US). Business heavily depends on countries equations with each other.

      Now since India is abandoning its non-aligned principle, you will see west and India coming closer. China on the other hand has become more of a head-ache for west after China got some money. No one can deny that China is acting more bully after it’s economical revival.

      These kind of developments will of course hit it’s progress. I don’t think the current projection considers the dirty games that most of countries play.

    • FUCK CHINA

      really so 9k per capita is the same as 54k per capita have you been any where in china besides shangihi and bejing what about Tibet or xjiang of the whole of western china

      • Chris

        US is promoting the freedom of shooting at black people walking the streets.
        India is promoting the freedom of raping in streets night and night.

  • FUCK CHINA

    lets not forget that china wont grow forever at 7.4 gdp a lot of shit can go down in 15 years for example 1991-2001 usa had a surplus for a brief moment and AMAZING job growth and 1 convential war that it won in a matter of months without trouble 2001-2015 two wars(guerrilla wars non convential ) slumping economy and a recession china has 1.3 billion ppl a decling birth rate shifting industries from china to Vietnam or Mexico so china might experience what usa did in 2008 but you never KNOW

    • Sa Haha

      Your name clearly shows you are a low character person.

  • MartinArcher

    This is a very amusing article in its efforts to avoid the realities of the real world of jobs and production in India. An economy such as India’s does not grow and cannot be projected to grow based on data provided by those administering a soviet style five year plan in an economy that is virtually paralyzed by its bureaucracy no matter how much its “data” is massaged by the US department of agriculture. It appears from casual empiricism, and no one can be certain because the data is so suspect, that India’s real per capita output has barely budged in the last forty years. Perhaps India has done what no other economy has ever done – grown even though per capita production of electricity has not grown. It’s not likely but one can’t be certain since the electricity production data come from the same planners and that may be the sector where failure is mistakenly reported.

    In the real world India is doomed to at best tread water in the years ahead – until it gets rid of its paralyzing regulations, laws, courts, permits, inspections, permissions, reports, licenses, corruption, etc etc that make it virtually impossible for a new employer to be established or an existing employer to expand.

    • Dir123

      The five year plans were abolished by the new govt. (BJP- NDA) when it came to power and it replaced the Planning Commission with a new body (NITI Aayog) which promotes cooperative federalism between Indian states and has stopped top down central planning . And the problems you mentioned about infrastructure and administration are very real, but they are being tackled, I hope the plans come to fruition. For example to improve electricity production the govt. performed competitive auctions for coal mines in order to provide fuel for thermal power plants and reduce backlog. While the new govt. has it’s downsides (cultural nationalism and conservatism), but when it comes to economy, it definitely seems to be better than the previous Congress (UPA) govt. which was pretty incompetent on this front.

      • MartinArcher

        Changing the name on the door is hardly reform since it didn’t change the bureaucrats inside or what they are doing. India will not prosper if its governments merely nibble around the edges of the monstrous bureaucracy that keeps it in poverty. It’s all well and good to make speeches and fabricate data and pretend a country is successful – but that doesn’t change the real world of jobs and production.

  • Timothy Guillemette

    Maybe by inflation. Chinese already have a higher purchasing parity to the avg American, meaning they have already surpassed the U.S. Source Imf

  • unconventionalthinker

    China’s economy is already bigger than that of the USA in the year 2015 ,
    if you look at trade and other figures .